Viking 1-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Mjondalen travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 June 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.34 xG and Mjondalen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.023 / defence 1.461 | Mjondalen attack 0.681 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.364. Data: 2 Viking games / 2 Mjondalen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Viking 37% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 38%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Mjondalen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 37% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Viking 1.34 / Mjondalen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.023 / def 1.461 | Mjondalen attack 0.681 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Mjondalen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Mjondalen kick off?
Viking vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 June 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Mjondalen?
Viking 1 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Viking vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Mjondalen part of?
Viking vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 37% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Viking and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Mjondalen in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.02) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.87
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Viking xG
Total xG
2.70
1.36
Mjondalen xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Viking and 1.36 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Pre-Season
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Viking's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Mjondalen?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Viking and Mjondalen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Mjondalen finished level at 1-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.34 xG and Mjondalen 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.02 / defence 1.46 against Mjondalen attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Viking 37% | Draw 26% | Mjondalen 38%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.