Viking 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Viking have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Viking, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Viking 2W, Ham-Kam 1W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Ham-Kam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Ham-Kam 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 63% | Ham-Kam 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.28 xG and Ham-Kam 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.049 / defence 1.070 | Ham-Kam attack 1.042 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.528. Data: 39 Viking games / 40 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Viking 29% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 47%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 2.13. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.

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