Valerenga 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Valerenga welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valerenga at 1.60 PPG versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Valerenga, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 61% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.17 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.183 / defence 1.042 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.028 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.356. Data: 57 Valerenga games / 57 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 54% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.85. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 54% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Valerenga 2.17 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.183 / def 1.042 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.028 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga 3 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 54% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W.
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.86
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.62
1.45
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
3%
34.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.45 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valerenga's recent record stands at 24W 15D 18L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 26L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.53 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 16W 8D 4L from 28 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 10W 2D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.54 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 22W 9D 26L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Valerenga's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.00 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Valerenga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Valerenga
3
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Valerenga and 68% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Valerenga's games and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Valerenga's matches and 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 28, as Valerenga and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.17 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.45 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 54% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 26%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.53 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.