Valerenga 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valerenga have collected 1.71 PPG across 7 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Valerenga have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valerenga's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Intility Arena this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games (1.14 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Haugesund have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form favours the hosts. Valerenga's 1.71 PPG return is 0.57 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 1.14 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Valerenga — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 43% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Haugesund — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 71% versus Haugesund 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 57% | Haugesund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.56 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.035 / defence 1.217 | Haugesund attack 0.601 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.593. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Valerenga games / 7 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 3.57. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 100% | Haugesund 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Valerenga 1.56 / Haugesund 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.035 / def 1.217 | Haugesund attack 0.601 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.593 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Haugesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Valerenga 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Haugesund part of?
Valerenga vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 46% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valerenga and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.60x) against Valerenga's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
46%
2.15
25%
3.98
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.72
1.17
Haugesund xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.17 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 3D 1L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Valerenga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Haugesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valerenga's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Haugesund in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Early Season
Haugesund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Haugesund away?
Valerenga's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.67 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Haugesund in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Valerenga, 33% for Haugesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Valerenga and 33% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 67%; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Valerenga's games and 33% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Valerenga's matches and 33% of Haugesund's.
Do Valerenga and Haugesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Haugesund 1-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.56 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Haugesund attack 0.60 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 46% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 28%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 57%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.