Tromso 1-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Tromso welcome Stromsgodset to Alfheim Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tromso — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's home record at Alfheim Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Tromso) versus 1.40 (Stromsgodset). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tromso, 0 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tromso in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 56% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 52% | Stromsgodset 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.763 / defence 0.993 | Stromsgodset attack 0.623 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.211. Tromso's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Tromso games / 55 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 18%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Stromsgodset 5.56. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Stromsgodset 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Tromso 1.41 / Stromsgodset 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.763 / def 0.993 | Stromsgodset attack 0.623 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Tromso (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Stromsgodset xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Tromso vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Tromso 1 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Tromso vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Stromsgodset part of?
Tromso vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 50% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Tromso and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): Tromso 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Tromso and Stromsgodset in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
50%
1.99
32%
3.11
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.16
0.75
Stromsgodset xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
23.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Tromso and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Tromso and 0.75 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso's recent record stands at 7W 8D 10L from 25 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 10L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.16 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tromso have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.52 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Stromsgodset away?
Tromso's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.08 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Tromso's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Tromso 3-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Stromsgodset?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 58%, Stromsgodset 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Tromso) and 42% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Tromso's recent matches and 33% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Tromso's recent games and 42% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Tromso and Stromsgodset drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.41 xG and Stromsgodset 0.75 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Stromsgodset attack 0.62 / defence 1.02, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 50% | Draw 32% | Stromsgodset 18%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 52%, Stromsgodset 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.16 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.