Tromso 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Tromso (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 games at Alfheim Stadion this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Alfheim Stadion this season.
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Tromso, 1.40 for Rosenborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tromso have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Tromso — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 42% versus Rosenborg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 58% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.12 xG and Rosenborg 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.689 / defence 1.379 | Rosenborg attack 1.056 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.139. Tromso's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Tromso games / 43 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 24% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 48%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 2.08. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 60% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 24% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Tromso 1.12 / Rosenborg 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.689 / def 1.379 | Rosenborg attack 1.056 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Rosenborg xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Rosenborg kick off?
Tromso vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Rosenborg?
Tromso 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Tromso vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Rosenborg part of?
Tromso vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 24% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tromso and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Rosenborg in?
Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.06x) against Tromso's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 12/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
24%
4.21
28%
3.55
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.78
1.66
Rosenborg xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
22.13
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tromso and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Tromso and 1.66 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Tromso have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 2W 4D 6L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tromso.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tromso have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.83 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.40 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 3-0 on 23 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
0
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Rosenborg have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Tromso, 80% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Tromso and 80% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Tromso's games and 80% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Tromso's matches and 80% of Rosenborg's.
Do Tromso and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Tromso 1-3 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.12 xG and Rosenborg 1.66 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.69 / defence 1.38 against Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 12/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 24% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 48%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 58%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Tromso (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.