Tromso 2-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ham-Kam make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Alfheim Stadion, Tromso have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.901 / defence 0.984 | Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.123. Data: 31 Tromso games / 1 Ham-Kam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Tromso 55% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 21%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Tromso (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 55% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Tromso 1.70 / Ham-Kam 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.901 / def 0.984 | Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Tromso (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ham-Kam xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Tromso 2 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Tromso vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Ham-Kam part of?
Tromso vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 55% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tromso and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Ham-Kam in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Tromso home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.90) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.85x) against Tromso's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.16
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.64
0.94
Ham-Kam xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
26.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Tromso and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Tromso and 0.94 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Tromso have won 7, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Ham-Kam?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Ham-Kam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 2-1 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 0.94 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 55% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 21%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.