Stromsgodset 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 8 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Stromsgodset's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Stromsgodset 2W, Sandefjord 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 43% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 38% | Sandefjord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.55 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.922 / defence 0.817 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.473. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Stromsgodset games / 43 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 3.57. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 40% | Sandefjord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 1.55 / Sandefjord 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.922 / def 0.817 | Sandefjord attack 0.943 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 July 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 47% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Record (6 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 3W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.94x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.97
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.69
1.14
Sandefjord xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.14 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 6D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.95 PPG from 42 outings (10W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.50 points per game from 20 outings (2W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.52 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 6D 18L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.65 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 45%, Sandefjord 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stromsgodset) and 70% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sandefjord in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Stromsgodset's games and 65% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Stromsgodset's matches and 70% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Sandefjord finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.55 xG and Sandefjord 1.14 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Sandefjord attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 47% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 28%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 38%, Sandefjord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.