Stromsgodset 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 7 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Stromsgodset at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Stromsgodset's games and 60% of Rosenborg's (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 3, Rosenborg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Stromsgodset 3–1 Rosenborg — a Stromsgodset win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus Rosenborg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 55% | Rosenborg 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.75 xG and Rosenborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.016 / defence 0.922 | Rosenborg attack 1.097 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 31 games and Rosenborg's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 46% | Draw 23% | Rosenborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.16 | Draw 4.29 | Rosenborg 3.29. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 60% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Stromsgodset 31 games, Rosenborg 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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