Stromsgodset 0-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stromsgodset host Rosenborg at Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 July 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Stromsgodset are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 2, Rosenborg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 50% versus Rosenborg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 59% | Rosenborg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.94 xG and Rosenborg 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.077 / defence 0.874 | Rosenborg attack 0.938 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.294. Data: 44 Stromsgodset games / 45 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 20%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Stromsgodset 1.94 / Rosenborg 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.077 / def 0.874 | Rosenborg attack 0.938 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rosenborg xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Stromsgodset 0 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg part of?
Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 58% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Stromsgodset and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.08) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.58
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.00
1.06
Rosenborg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
3%
34.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.06 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 8D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (20W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 11W 2D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 8D 21L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Rosenborg away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.75 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Rosenborg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 55%, Rosenborg at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Stromsgodset and 65% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Stromsgodset's games and 75% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Stromsgodset's matches and 65% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stromsgodset and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 0-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.94 xG and Rosenborg 1.06 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Rosenborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 58% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 20%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 59%, Rosenborg 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.