Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kristiansund BK make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Kristiansund BK are 0.60 PPG clear of Stromsgodset in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Kristiansund BK have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Stromsgodset's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kristiansund BK have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 58% and Kristiansund BK 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | Kristiansund BK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.82 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.117 / defence 0.845 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.778 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Data: 52 Stromsgodset games / 52 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 14%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kristiansund BK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Kristiansund BK 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Stromsgodset 1.82 / Kristiansund BK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.117 / def 0.845 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.778 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kristiansund BK xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 59% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK?
Record (4 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 3W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.12x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.78x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.72
14%
7.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.65
0.82
Kristiansund BK xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
7.04
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
43.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.82 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 15W 15D 22L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 13L across 52 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 8W 10D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 24W 15D 13L in their last 52 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.46 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-3 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 62%, Kristiansund BK 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Stromsgodset and 62% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stromsgodset's games and 65% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Stromsgodset's matches and 62% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Kristiansund BK finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.82 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.82 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 59% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 14%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, Kristiansund BK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.