Start 0-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparebanken Sør Arena plays host to Start versus Sandefjord in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Start's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Start have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sandefjord (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Start, 1.30 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Start lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Start goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 52% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 57% | Sandefjord 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.49 xG and Sandefjord 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.957 / defence 1.106 | Sandefjord attack 0.880 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.365. Data: 21 Start games / 21 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 40% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 33%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sandefjord 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Start as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Start if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Start 50% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 40% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Start 1.49 / Sandefjord 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.957 / def 1.106 | Sandefjord attack 0.880 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Start (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sandefjord xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Sandefjord kick off?
Start vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 October 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Sandefjord?
Start 0 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Start vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Sandefjord part of?
Start vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Start a 40% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Start and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 1 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Start and Sandefjord in?
Start (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Start's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.88x) against Start's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Start xG
Total xG
2.81
1.33
Sandefjord xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Start and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Start and 1.33 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Start come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 7D 10L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Start against 1.10 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Start's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Start are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (4W 0D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Start are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Start have gone 4W 7D 10L in their last 21 games (0.90 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 7W 2D 12L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Sandefjord away?
Start's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 1.45 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Sandefjord?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2020, when Start 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Start and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 54%, Sandefjord 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Start and 64% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Start have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Start's games and 64% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Start's matches and 64% of Sandefjord's.
Do Start and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandefjord defy the odds to beat Start 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Start 0-1 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.49 xG and Sandefjord 1.33 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Start fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 40% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 33%, with Start to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 57%, Sandefjord 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.90 PPG, Sandefjord 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.