Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 April 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 3W 4D 3L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stabaek carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stabaek, 2 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2020, ended 0–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 50% versus ODD Ballklubb 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.79 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.928 / defence 0.989 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.046 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Stabaek games / 30 ODD Ballklubb games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 46% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 46% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Stabaek 1.79 / ODD Ballklubb 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.928 / def 0.989 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.046 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 5 April 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 46% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.93x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.96
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.19
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
5%
20.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.40 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 13L across 30 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.30 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 5W 2D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Stabaek or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
2
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Stabaek and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.79 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.8 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 46% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.30 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.