Stabaek 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 1.40 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Molde have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Stabaek's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Stabaek winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 53% versus Molde 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Molde 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.05 xG and Molde 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.695 / defence 0.933 | Molde attack 1.332 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.308. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Stabaek games / 46 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 1.96. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 38% | Molde 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Stabaek 1.05 / Molde 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.695 / def 0.933 | Molde attack 1.332 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Molde (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 24% chance of winning, Molde a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Record (5 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 4W.
What form are Stabaek and Molde in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.69) and Molde's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.33x) against Stabaek's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 15/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
24%
4.08
25%
4.05
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.67
1.62
Molde xG
4.08
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
20.74
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.62 for Molde, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Molde in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Molde have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Stabaek's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.57 PPG; Molde away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Molde in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 43%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Stabaek and 86% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stabaek's recent matches and 57% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Stabaek's matches and 86% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Molde in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.05 xG and Molde 1.62 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Molde attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Molde 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.