Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Viking arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Viking in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 xG and Viking 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.984 / defence 0.966 | Viking attack 1.111 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.246. Data: 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | Viking 32%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Viking 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | Viking 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 / Viking 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.984 / def 0.966 | Viking attack 1.111 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Viking xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance of winning, Viking a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.98) and Viking's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.11x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.57
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.34
Viking xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.34 for Viking, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 17L across 60 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 12W 8D 10L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.90 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Viking away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 70% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 57% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Viking tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52 xG and Viking 1.34 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against Viking attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 28% | Viking 32%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.