Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Tromso.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0.90 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% versus Tromso 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Tromso 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.87 xG and Tromso 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.578 / defence 0.937 | Tromso attack 0.877 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.578 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 10 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 37% | Tromso 33%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.33 | Draw 2.70 | Tromso 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Tromso 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 37% | Tromso 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.87 / Tromso 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.578 / def 0.937 | Tromso attack 0.877 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Tromso xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 30% chance of winning, Tromso a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.58) and Tromso's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.88x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 39/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.39
37%
2.68
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
1.81
0.94
Tromso xG
3.39
30%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 15.4 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.94 for Tromso, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 2W 3D 5L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 0.90 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 0.90 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.90 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.00 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Tromso have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 0.50 PPG; Tromso away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Tromso in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 25% (Tromso) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Tromso in 50%; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 25% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 50% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Tromso in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.87 xG and Tromso 0.94 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.58 / defence 0.94 against Tromso attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 37% | Tromso 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, Tromso 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.90 PPG, Tromso 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.