Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Molde have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.70 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% versus Molde 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Molde 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.070 / defence 0.912 | Molde attack 1.123 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Data: 56 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 56 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 26% | Molde 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 4.55. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 26% | Molde 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 / Molde 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.070 / def 0.912 | Molde attack 1.123 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Molde xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 53% chance of winning, Molde a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Molde (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.07x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.12x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.91
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.26
1.26
Molde xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
3%
34.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.26 for Molde, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 13D 25L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 35W 7D 14L from 56 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Molde have gone 13W 5D 10L from 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Molde have gone 35W 7D 14L in their last 56 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.54 PPG; Molde away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Molde in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-1 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Molde have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Molde 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 79% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 68% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 79% of Molde's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Molde in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Molde 1.26 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Molde attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 26% | Molde 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, Molde 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.