Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.015 / defence 0.988 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.807 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.397. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 33 games and KFUM Oslo's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.30 | Draw 3.76 | KFUM Oslo 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Sarpsborg 08 FF 33 games, KFUM Oslo 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 / KFUM Oslo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.015 / def 0.988 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.807 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
KFUM Oslo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.81x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 33 games and KFUM Oslo's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.76
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.51
1.11
KFUM Oslo xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.11 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
KFUM Oslo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
3
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.40 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. KFUM Oslo outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 27% | KFUM Oslo 30%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.