Sandefjord 0-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host KFUM Oslo at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
KFUM Oslo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.10 (KFUM Oslo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 53% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 60% | KFUM Oslo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.49 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.746 / defence 1.023 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.864 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.375. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Sandefjord games / 45 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | KFUM Oslo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 20% | KFUM Oslo 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.49 / KFUM Oslo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.746 / def 1.023 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.864 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.22
KFUM Oslo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 3W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.87
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.71
1.22
KFUM Oslo xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.22 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 6D 20L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (12W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.40 PPG, KFUM Oslo on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (3W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.31 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 19W 6D 20L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.90 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sandefjord's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Sandefjord 0-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 33%, KFUM Oslo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sandefjord) and 52% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 57% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sandefjord's recent games and 52% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KFUM Oslo defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.49 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, KFUM Oslo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.40 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.