Sandefjord 4-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandefjord face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Jotun Arena to face Sandefjord in Eliteserien (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandefjord's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandefjord are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.10 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) — Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Haugesund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sandefjord, 2 for Haugesund and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Sandefjord 1–2 Haugesund — a Haugesund win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 64% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 64% | Haugesund 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Haugesund 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.111 / defence 1.060 | Haugesund attack 0.908 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.385. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 45 games and Haugesund's last 44.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.35 | Draw 3.91 | Haugesund 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 70% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 16 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Sandefjord 1.57 / Haugesund 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.111 / def 1.060 | Haugesund attack 0.908 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Haugesund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Haugesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Sandefjord 4 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Haugesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 16) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sandefjord and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (1.11) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.91x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 45 games and Haugesund's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.91
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
Haugesund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.33 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (14W 8D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.14 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
Sandefjord (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Sandefjord vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 8D 22L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Haugesund away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.48 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sandefjord have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won Sandefjord 4-0 Haugesund on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2025: Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Haugesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 62%, Haugesund 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sandefjord) and 48% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 5% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 48% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandefjord and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sandefjord's matches and 48% of Haugesund's.
Do Sandefjord and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 67% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Haugesund 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Haugesund 4-3 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Haugesund 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Haugesund attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 26% | Haugesund 32%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 64%, Haugesund 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.