Sandefjord 1-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 May 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 6W 1D 3L at Jotun Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fredrikstad — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fredrikstad have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Fredrikstad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Fredrikstad trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 60% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 65% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.69 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.754 / defence 0.769 | Fredrikstad attack 0.918 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.157. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fredrikstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sandefjord's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Sandefjord games / 39 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 18%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Fredrikstad lead the H2H ledger, but Sandefjord carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Fredrikstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 58% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Sandefjord 1.69 / Fredrikstad 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.754 / def 0.769 | Fredrikstad attack 0.918 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fredrikstad xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 25 May 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad part of?
Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 58% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sandefjord and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.75x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.18
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.51
0.82
Fredrikstad xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
30.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.82 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 24W 10D 26L from 60 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 17L across 60 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.37 PPG, Fredrikstad on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 18W 3D 9L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Fredrikstad away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.90 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord's record when hosting Fredrikstad specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sandefjord
2
Draws
4
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 47%, Fredrikstad 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sandefjord) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%; Fredrikstad in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 37% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Sandefjord's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Fredrikstad finished level at 1-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.69 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.75 / defence 0.77 against Fredrikstad attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 58% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 18%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 65%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.37 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.