Sandefjord 0-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face Brann.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Brann — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Brann's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Brann have the better historical record — 4 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Sandefjord.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Sandefjord winning.
It is worth noting that Brann have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Brann in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 53% and Brann 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 60% | Brann 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.07 xG and Brann 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.692 / defence 1.019 | Brann attack 1.250 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.376. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Sandefjord games / 47 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 23% | Draw 24% | Brann 53%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Brann 1.89. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 20% | Brann 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 23% | Draw 24% | Brann 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.07 / Brann 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.692 / def 1.019 | Brann attack 1.250 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Brann (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Brann xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Brann.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 23% chance of winning, Brann a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
Record (9 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 4 | Brann 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Brann (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.69x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
23%
4.33
24%
4.25
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.83
1.75
Brann xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
25.01
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.75 for Brann, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 6D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.72 PPG from 47 outings (25W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.40 PPG, Brann on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (10W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.94 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 20W 6D 21L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Brann have gone 25W 6D 16L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.87 PPG; Brann away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 30%, Brann 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Sandefjord and 83% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 65% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sandefjord's matches and 83% of Brann's.
Do Sandefjord and Brann tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Brann in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Sandefjord and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.07 xG and Brann 1.75 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Brann attack 1.25 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 23% | Draw 24% | Brann 53%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, Brann 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.40 PPG, Brann 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.