Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sandefjord face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sandefjord welcome Bodo/Glimt to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Sandefjord.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 60% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.18 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.821 / defence 0.937 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.335 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.224. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Sandefjord games / 44 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 45%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.22. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 20% | Bodo/Glimt 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandefjord 1.18 / Bodo/Glimt 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.821 / def 0.937 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.335 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Bodo/Glimt xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sandefjord 0 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (9 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 7W.
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.82x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.45
26%
3.83
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.72
1.53
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.53 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 6D 18L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.30 PPG from 43 outings (31W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 13W 4D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.10 points per game from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.74 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 19W 6D 18L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 6D 6L in their last 43 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 2.05 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 33%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sandefjord) and 71% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sandefjord's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sandefjord and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.18 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.53 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.33 / defence 0.85, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 29% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 45%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.