Rosenborg 1-3 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Valerenga at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rosenborg are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 2, Valerenga 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 70% and Valerenga 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 77% | Valerenga 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.39 xG and Valerenga 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.809 / defence 1.006 | Valerenga attack 0.979 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.115. Data: 35 Rosenborg games / 34 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 41% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 28%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Valerenga 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 41% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Rosenborg 1.39 / Valerenga 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.809 / def 1.006 | Valerenga attack 0.979 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Valerenga xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Valerenga kick off?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 Valerenga.
Where is Rosenborg vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Valerenga part of?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 41% chance of winning, Valerenga a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rosenborg and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
41%
2.42
31%
3.23
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
Valerenga xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.10 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 29W 17D 14L from 60 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 19L across 60 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.73 PPG, Valerenga on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.63 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Valerenga in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 24W 17D 19L in their last 60 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Valerenga away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Valerenga have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Valerenga 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 60% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Valerenga's.
Do Rosenborg and Valerenga tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.39 xG and Valerenga 1.10 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 41% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 28%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 77%, Valerenga 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Valerenga's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, Valerenga 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.