Rosenborg 3-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 2 for Stromsgodset and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 69% and Stromsgodset 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 74% | Stromsgodset 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.56 xG and Stromsgodset 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.281 / defence 0.784 | Stromsgodset attack 0.719 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.872 / away 1.383. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Rosenborg games / 55 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 76% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 9%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.32 | Draw 6.67 | Stromsgodset 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Stromsgodset lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 70% | Stromsgodset 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 76% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 50% | xG Rosenborg 2.56 / Stromsgodset 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.281 / def 0.784 | Stromsgodset attack 0.719 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.872 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Stromsgodset xG
50%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 3 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 76% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 9% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.28) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
76%
1.32
15%
6.64
9%
10.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.34
0.78
Stromsgodset xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.64
15%
Draw
10.91
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
8%
12.91
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
1%
140.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.78 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 26W 17D 12L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset's form line: 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.22 PPG from 27 outings (18W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 8D 16L from 27 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.49 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 17D 12L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.22 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Stromsgodset 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Rosenborg and 52% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 41% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Rosenborg's matches and 52% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 3-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.56 xG and Stromsgodset 0.78 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.28 / defence 0.78 against Stromsgodset attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 76% | Draw 15% | Stromsgodset 9%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 74%, Stromsgodset 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.