Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Stromsgodset travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Rosenborg) versus 1.00 (Stromsgodset). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 4 for Stromsgodset and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 56% versus Stromsgodset 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 56% | Stromsgodset 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.79 xG and Stromsgodset 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.892 / defence 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.971 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. Data: 59 Rosenborg games / 59 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Stromsgodset 4.00. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Stromsgodset 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 1.79 / Stromsgodset 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.892 / def 0.901 | Stromsgodset attack 0.971 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Stromsgodset xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg 6 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset part of?
Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 51% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Record (9 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.89) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.31
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.20
Stromsgodset xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.20 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 26W 14D 19L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 16W 10D 33L from 59 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (16W 8D 5L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 6W 5D 18L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.17 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 games (1.56 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 10D 33L in their last 59 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stromsgodset away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.93 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Rosenborg won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Rosenborg 6-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stromsgodset?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Stromsgodset 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rosenborg) and 66% (Stromsgodset). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 55% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Rosenborg's matches and 66% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Rosenborg and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stromsgodset 6-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.79 xG and Stromsgodset 1.20 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 51% | Draw 23% | Stromsgodset 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 56%, Stromsgodset 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.