Rosenborg 3-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Molde have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Molde in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 56% and Molde 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 67% | Molde 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.60 xG and Molde 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.094 / defence 1.078 | Molde attack 1.234 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.369. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Rosenborg games / 27 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 33% | Draw 25% | Molde 42%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 33% | Draw 25% | Molde 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Rosenborg 1.60 / Molde 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.094 / def 1.078 | Molde attack 1.234 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Molde (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Molde xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Molde kick off?
Rosenborg vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 December 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Molde.
Where is Rosenborg vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Molde part of?
Rosenborg vs Molde is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 33% chance of winning, Molde a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Rosenborg and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.09x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.23x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
33%
3.01
25%
4.07
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.43
1.82
Molde xG
3.01
33%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.82 for Molde, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 14W 5D 8L from 27 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 18W 2D 7L across 27 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Rosenborg against 2.07 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 7W 1D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Molde in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 14W 5D 8L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Molde have gone 18W 2D 7L in their last 27 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Molde away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.23 PPG; Molde away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rosenborg
4
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 2, Molde have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Rosenborg, 77% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Rosenborg and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Rosenborg's games and 77% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Rosenborg's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Rosenborg and Molde tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Molde in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Molde 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.60 xG and Molde 1.82 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Molde landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Molde attack 1.23 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 33% | Draw 25% | Molde 42%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Molde 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.74 PPG, Molde 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.