Rosenborg 1-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lillestrom (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lillestrom are 0.90 PPG clear of Rosenborg in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 63% versus Lillestrom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 71% | Lillestrom 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.29 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.830 / defence 1.098 | Lillestrom attack 1.058 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.222. Data: 43 Rosenborg games / 41 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 40%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 40% | Lillestrom 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Rosenborg 1.29 / Lillestrom 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.830 / def 1.098 | Lillestrom attack 1.058 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lillestrom xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Rosenborg 1 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 34% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 3W.
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.06x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 43/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.89
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.42
Lillestrom xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.42 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 18W 11D 12L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 21W 7D 13L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.71 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 18W 11D 12L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 21W 7D 13L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 55%, Lillestrom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rosenborg and 65% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rosenborg's matches and 65% of Lillestrom's.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Rosenborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 1-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.29 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Lillestrom attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 34% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 40%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Lillestrom 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.59 PPG, Lillestrom 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.