Rosenborg 4-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Aalesund meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rosenborg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Lerkendal Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Aalesund (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Aalesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 63% versus Aalesund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 71% | Aalesund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.49 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / defence 1.088 | Aalesund attack 0.753 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.319. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Rosenborg games / 49 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 68% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 15%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Aalesund 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Aalesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 68% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 2.49 / Aalesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.974 / def 1.088 | Aalesund attack 0.753 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Aalesund xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Aalesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Rosenborg 4 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Aalesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 68% chance of winning, Aalesund a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 1 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.97) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.75x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.79
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.57
1.08
Aalesund xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
1%
82.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.08 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 23W 12D 14L from 49 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 26L across 49 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 16W 3D 5L from 24 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Aalesund's away record stands at 4W 4D 16L across 24 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.92 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 23W 12D 14L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 13W 10D 26L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Aalesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
From 7 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Aalesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-3 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Aalesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 58%, Aalesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Rosenborg and 71% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Aalesund in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 50% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Rosenborg's matches and 71% of Aalesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Aalesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Aalesund 4-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.49 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Aalesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.51, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 68% | Draw 17% | Aalesund 15%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Aalesund 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.