ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as ODD Ballklubb welcome Stabaek to Skagerak Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 1D 2L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, ODD Ballklubb have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Stabaek in 88% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Stabaek 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2020, ended 1–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Stabaek trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 47% versus Stabaek 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 59% | Stabaek 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.12 xG and Stabaek 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.192 / defence 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.960 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.445. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 ODD Ballklubb games / 17 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 51% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 28%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Stabaek 3.57. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 67% | Stabaek 88% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 51% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.12 / Stabaek 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.192 / def 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.960 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Stabaek xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 51% chance of winning, Stabaek a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
51%
1.94
21%
4.78
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.63
1.51
Stabaek xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
3%
30.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.51 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 17 games, going 10W 1D 6L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 6W 1D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.35 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 10W 1D 6L in their last 17 games (1.82 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stabaek away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.38 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Stabaek have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 62%, Stabaek at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ODD Ballklubb and 88% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 88% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 88% of Stabaek's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stabaek 2-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.12 xG and Stabaek 1.51 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stabaek landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against Stabaek attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 51% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 28%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 59%, Stabaek 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.