ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Brann travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.29 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. ODD Ballklubb have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — 1.86 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.57. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Brann have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brann's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 1.43 PPG versus Brann's 1.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Brann trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 43% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 71% | Brann 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.43 xG and Brann 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.855 / defence 1.216 | Brann attack 0.726 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.508. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 ODD Ballklubb games / 7 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 25% | Brann 35%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Brann 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 25% | Brann 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.43 / Brann 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.855 / def 1.216 | Brann attack 0.726 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brann xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 July 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 0 Brann.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 40% chance of winning, Brann a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Brann (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.85) and Brann's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
40%
2.53
25%
3.93
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.76
1.33
Brann xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.33 for Brann, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brann's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Brann, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Brann have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.71 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Early Season
Brann
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Brann have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.00 PPG; Brann away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Brann runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Brann have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 50%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for ODD Ballklubb and 75% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 75% of Brann's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Brann tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Brann in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Brann 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Brann 1-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.43 xG and Brann 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brann landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Brann attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 25% | Brann 35%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 71%, Brann 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.