ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Brann travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, ODD Ballklubb have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Brann trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 58% | Brann 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.99 xG and Brann 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.063 / defence 1.014 | Brann attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.078. Data: 31 ODD Ballklubb games / 1 Brann games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 62% | Draw 21% | Brann 17%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 5.88. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Brann 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 62% | Draw 21% | Brann 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.99 / Brann 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.063 / def 1.014 | Brann attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Brann xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 0 Brann.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Brann is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 62% chance of winning, Brann a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.06) and Brann's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.75
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.92
0.93
Brann xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
43.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.93 for Brann, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 14W 6D 11L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 5W 12D 14L from 31 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, ODD Ballklubb are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (8W 1D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 6D 8L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.35 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Brann
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Brann in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 14W 6D 11L in their last 31 games (1.55 PPG), while Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Brann away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Brann away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Brann runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Brann have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 67%, Brann at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for ODD Ballklubb and 60% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 67% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 60% of Brann's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Brann tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Brann 2-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.99 xG and Brann 0.93 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brann landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 62% | Draw 21% | Brann 17%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 58%, Brann 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.