ODD Ballklubb 3-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 61% | Bodo/Glimt 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.18 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.868 / defence 1.201 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.411. Data: 42 ODD Ballklubb games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 24% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 53%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 1.89. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 24% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.18 / Bodo/Glimt 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.868 / def 1.201 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.104 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Bodo/Glimt xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 24% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (4 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
24%
4.17
23%
4.43
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.06
1.87
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.17
24%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
4%
27.12
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.87 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 8D 20L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 5L across 41 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 7W 3D 10L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 5D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 1.98 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 23W 13D 5L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.20 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.90 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 70%, Bodo/Glimt 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for ODD Ballklubb and 50% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 50% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 50% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.18 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.87 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.10 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 24% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 53%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a ODD Ballklubb win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 61%, Bodo/Glimt 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.