Molde 3-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Stromsgodset travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Aker Stadion this season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Molde carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Molde, 1 for Stromsgodset and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Molde in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 58% versus Stromsgodset 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 69% | Stromsgodset 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.96 xG and Stromsgodset 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.216 / defence 0.899 | Stromsgodset attack 0.836 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.363. Data: 46 Molde games / 45 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 59% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Molde (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 59% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Molde 1.96 / Stromsgodset 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.216 / def 0.899 | Stromsgodset attack 0.836 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Molde (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Stromsgodset xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Molde vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Stromsgodset?
Molde 3 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Molde vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Stromsgodset part of?
Molde vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 59% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Molde and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stromsgodset?
Record (3 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Molde and Stromsgodset in?
Molde (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.22x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.63
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Molde xG
Total xG
2.98
1.02
Stromsgodset xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
36.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Molde and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Molde and 1.02 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Molde's recent record stands at 28W 9D 8L from 45 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 17L across 45 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stromsgodset heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Molde have managed 15W 3D 4L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 3W 7D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stromsgodset's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.42 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 28W 9D 8L in their last 45 games (2.07 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Stromsgodset away?
Molde's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.18 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Molde or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Stromsgodset won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Molde
1
Draws
3
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 6, Stromsgodset have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 3-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Stromsgodset?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Stromsgodset see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 64%, Stromsgodset 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Molde and 46% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Molde's recent matches and 41% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Molde's matches and 46% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Molde and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stromsgodset 3-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.96 xG and Stromsgodset 1.02 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.22 / defence 0.90 against Stromsgodset attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 59% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 19%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 69%, Stromsgodset 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.