Molde 2-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Rosenborg meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Molde (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion.
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Molde's 3.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Rosenborg's 2.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Molde, 0 for Rosenborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 54% and Rosenborg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 68% | Rosenborg 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 3.17 xG and Rosenborg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.464 / defence 0.736 | Rosenborg attack 1.358 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.771 / away 1.359. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.464 — their λ of 3.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Molde's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rosenborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Molde's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Molde games / 56 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 73% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 13%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.37 | Draw 7.14 | Rosenborg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Molde (73%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (3.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 73% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 71% | xG Molde 3.17 / Rosenborg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.464 / def 0.736 | Rosenborg attack 1.358 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.771 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Molde (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.17
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Rosenborg xG
71%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Rosenborg kick off?
Molde vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Rosenborg?
Molde 2 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Molde vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Rosenborg part of?
Molde vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 73% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 13% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Molde and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Molde 1W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in?
Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.46) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 3.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.36x) against Molde's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.4%), 4-1 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
73%
1.37
14%
7.17
13%
7.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
4 – 1
6.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.17
Molde xG
Total xG
4.53
1.36
Rosenborg xG
1.37
73%
Home win
7.17
14%
Draw
7.65
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
4%
23.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
1%
181.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Molde and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 3.17 expected goals for Molde and 1.36 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 4.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde's recent record stands at 39W 9D 8L from 56 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 12L across 56 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Molde have managed 21W 3D 4L from 28 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 11D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 2.09 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 68%.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 39W 9D 8L in their last 56 games (2.25 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 17D 12L in their last 56 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Rosenborg away?
Molde's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.36 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Molde or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Molde
4
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 4, Rosenborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Molde 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Rosenborg?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Molde, 79% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Molde and 71% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Molde's games and 79% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Molde's matches and 71% of Rosenborg's.
Do Molde and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Rosenborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Rosenborg 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 3.17 xG and Rosenborg 1.36 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Molde fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.46 / defence 0.74 against Rosenborg attack 1.36 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 73% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 13%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 68%, Rosenborg 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Molde (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.