Molde vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Molde are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Molde register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 70% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 90% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.06 xG and Haugesund 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.167 / defence 0.929 | Haugesund attack 1.021 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Molde games / 30 Haugesund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Molde 54% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 4.55. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 54% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Molde 2.06 / Haugesund 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.167 / def 0.929 | Haugesund attack 1.021 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Molde (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Haugesund xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 54% chance of winning, Haugesund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.17x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.31
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Molde xG
Total xG
3.34
1.28
Haugesund xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
3%
35.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Molde and 1.28 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Molde have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 20W 2D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 3D 7L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 20W 2D 8L in their last 30 games (2.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.47 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Molde and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Molde's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Molde and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.06 xG and Haugesund 1.28 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Haugesund attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 54% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 90%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.