Mjondalen 0-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjondalen and Sandefjord meet at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 2W 0D 5L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sandefjord are 0.60 PPG clear of Mjondalen in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjondalen lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2020, ended 0–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 44% versus Sandefjord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 44% | Sandefjord 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.27 xG and Sandefjord 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.650 / defence 1.163 | Sandefjord attack 0.816 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.443. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Mjondalen games / 16 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 35% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 39%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 29% | Sandefjord 75%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 35% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Mjondalen 1.27 / Sandefjord 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.650 / def 1.163 | Sandefjord attack 0.816 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Mjondalen 0 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord part of?
Mjondalen vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 35% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mjondalen and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.82x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
35%
2.88
26%
3.83
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.65
1.37
Sandefjord xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.37 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 2D 10L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord's form line: 5W 1D 10L from 16 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.00 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjondalen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.06 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 5W 1D 10L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Sandefjord away?
Mjondalen's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.86 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
1
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sandefjord have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 29%, Sandefjord 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Mjondalen) and 71% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen have failed to score in 43% of games; Sandefjord in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 71% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mjondalen's recent games and 71% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Mjondalen 0-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.27 xG and Sandefjord 1.37 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.65 / defence 1.16 against Sandefjord attack 0.82 / defence 1.42, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 35% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 39%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 44%, Sandefjord 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.88 PPG, Sandefjord 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.