Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjondalen face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Bodo/Glimt at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Mjondalen.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 52% versus Bodo/Glimt 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 49% | Bodo/Glimt 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.93 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.872 / defence 1.070 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.154 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.261. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.622 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Mjondalen games / 59 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 20% | Draw 31% | Bodo/Glimt 49%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | Bodo/Glimt 2.04. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 70% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 20% | Draw 31% | Bodo/Glimt 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjondalen 0.93 / Bodo/Glimt 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.872 / def 1.070 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.154 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Mjondalen 0 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 20% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
20%
5.08
31%
3.19
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.49
1.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.08
20%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
4%
24.10
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.56 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 13W 12D 34L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 43W 12D 4L from 59 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.00 PPG from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 8D 3L from 29 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.69 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 13W 12D 34L in their last 59 games (0.86 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 43W 12D 4L in their last 59 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Mjondalen or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjondalen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 52%, Bodo/Glimt 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Mjondalen and 69% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mjondalen's games and 66% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mjondalen's matches and 69% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Mjondalen 0-3 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.93 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.56 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.15 / defence 0.62, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 20% | Draw 31% | Bodo/Glimt 49%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 49%, Bodo/Glimt 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.