Lillestrom vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Lillestrom welcome Valerenga to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's home record at Åråsen Stadion: 5W 1D 1L from 7 Eliteserien appearances (2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Valerenga have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 0 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Valerenga trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 69% and Valerenga 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 54% | Valerenga 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.48 xG and Valerenga 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.917 / defence 0.888 | Valerenga attack 1.195 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.167. Data: 13 Lillestrom games / 44 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Valerenga 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 57% | Valerenga 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 40% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Lillestrom 1.48 / Valerenga 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.917 / def 0.888 | Valerenga attack 1.195 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Valerenga xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Valerenga kick off?
Lillestrom vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
Where is Lillestrom vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Valerenga part of?
Lillestrom vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 40% chance of winning, Valerenga a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lillestrom and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Lillestrom and Valerenga in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.20
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.72
1.24
Valerenga xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.24 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lillestrom come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.85 PPG, Valerenga on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lillestrom's home form reads 5W 1D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Lillestrom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lillestrom are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.85 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Valerenga in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Valerenga away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.29 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and Valerenga runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lillestrom have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lillestrom
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Valerenga?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 4, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Valerenga 0-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Valerenga?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 57%, Valerenga 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lillestrom) and 57% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lillestrom's games and 71% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lillestrom's recent games and 57% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Valerenga tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lillestrom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Lillestrom and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.48 xG and Valerenga 1.24 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Valerenga attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 40% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 29%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 54%, Valerenga 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.85 PPG, Valerenga 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.