Lillestrom 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lillestrom at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Haugesund encounter.

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Match Analysis

Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lillestrom stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Lillestrom have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lillestrom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Haugesund's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lillestrom 0.40 PPG, Haugesund 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Lillestrom's games and 60% of Haugesund's (from Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Lillestrom hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 1 for Haugesund and 0 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Lillestrom 2–0 Haugesund — a Lillestrom win.

The head-to-head data gives Lillestrom an edge — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Lillestrom in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus Haugesund 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 66% | Haugesund 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.77 xG and Haugesund 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.962 / defence 1.179 | Haugesund attack 0.920 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.238. Data: built from Lillestrom's last 56 games and Haugesund's last 56.

Result probabilities: Lillestrom 48% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 29%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.10 | Draw 4.30 | Haugesund 3.42. Lillestrom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Lillestrom 6 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lillestrom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lillestrom's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lillestrom 60% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 60% (last 10 away games).

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