Lillestrom 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lillestrom lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 73% and Brann 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 73% | Brann 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.00 xG and Brann 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.205 / defence 1.041 | Brann attack 0.925 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.282. Data: 52 Lillestrom games / 22 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 55% | Draw 23% | Brann 23%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 80% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 55% | Draw 23% | Brann 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Lillestrom 2.00 / Brann 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.205 / def 1.041 | Brann attack 0.925 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Brann xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Lillestrom 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 55% chance of winning, Brann a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Brann (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.93x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.40
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.24
1.24
Brann xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
3%
32.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.24 for Brann, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 11W 3D 8L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 13W 3D 6L from 22 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.91 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (6W 0D 4L).
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.77 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 11W 3D 8L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Brann have gone 13W 3D 6L in their last 22 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.80 PPG; Brann away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 0, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Lillestrom, 50% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Lillestrom and 50% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lillestrom's games and 50% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Lillestrom's matches and 50% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Brann in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Lillestrom 0-2 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.00 xG and Brann 1.24 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Brann attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 55% | Draw 23% | Brann 23%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Brann win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 73%, Brann 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.64 PPG, Brann 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.