Kristiansund BK 2-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kristiansund BK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kristiansund BK have won 0, Viking 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 63% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 60% | Viking 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.31 xG and Viking 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.963 / defence 0.967 | Viking attack 1.161 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.224. Viking's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Kristiansund BK games / 57 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 32% | Viking 35%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Viking 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 60% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 32% | Viking 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.31 / Viking 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.963 / def 0.967 | Viking attack 1.161 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Viking (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Viking xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 3 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 32% chance of winning, Viking a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 0 | Viking 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.96x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
32%
3.08
32%
3.12
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.38
Viking xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.38 for Viking, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 16D 16L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.61 PPG from 57 outings (26W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.60 PPG, Viking on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.43 points per game from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.86 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Viking in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 25W 16D 16L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.93 PPG; Viking away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 64%, Viking 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Kristiansund BK and 71% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 57% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 71% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Viking in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Kristiansund BK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 2-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.31 xG and Viking 1.38 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Viking attack 1.16 / defence 0.75, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 32% | Draw 32% | Viking 35%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 60%, Viking 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG, Viking 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.