Kristiansund BK 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Kristiansund BK face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Nordmøre stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Viking have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Viking have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Viking have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Kristiansund BK.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Jul 2024, ended Kristiansund BK 0–2 Viking — a Viking win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Viking have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 52% versus Viking 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 45% | Viking 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kristiansund BK surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.32 xG and Viking 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.789 / defence 1.117 | Viking attack 1.323 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Viking have an above-average attack rating of 1.323, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 27 games and Viking's last 57.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 3.78 | Draw 4.48 | Viking 1.95. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.32 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Kristiansund BK 1.32 / Viking 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.789 / def 1.117 | Viking attack 1.323 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Viking (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Viking xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Viking FAQs
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 26% chance of winning, Viking a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kristiansund BK's last 27 games and Viking's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
26%
3.78
22%
4.48
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.22
1.91
Viking xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
4%
25.38
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.91 for Viking, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 5W 6D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 14 away games (6W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.03 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 66%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
Kristiansund BK (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Viking have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.50 PPG; Viking away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2026, when Viking won Viking 8-1 Kristiansund BK.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Viking 8-1 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 64%, Viking 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Kristiansund BK and 79% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kristiansund BK and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Kristiansund BK's games and 64% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kristiansund BK and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 79% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 79% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Kristiansund BK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 0-1 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.32 xG and Viking 1.91 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Viking landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Viking attack 1.32 / defence 1.09, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 26% | Draw 22% | Viking 51%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 45%, Viking 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.