Kristiansund BK 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Kristiansund Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.70 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Kristiansund BK 1W, Haugesund 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 56% versus Haugesund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 58% | Haugesund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.00 xG and Haugesund 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.099 / defence 1.304 | Haugesund attack 0.769 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.875 / away 1.375. Data: 55 Kristiansund BK games / 55 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 26%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 3.85. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 80% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.00 / Haugesund 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.099 / def 1.304 | Haugesund attack 0.769 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.875 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Haugesund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 52% chance of winning, Haugesund a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Record (5 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 3W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.10x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.77x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.62
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.38
1.38
Haugesund xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
27.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.38 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 10D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (17W 14D 24L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.18 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Kristiansund BK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (3W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.49 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 18W 10D 27L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Haugesund away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.67 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Haugesund have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 67%, Haugesund 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kristiansund BK) and 52% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kristiansund BK's games and 56% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 52% of Haugesund's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Haugesund tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Kristiansund BK 0-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.00 xG and Haugesund 1.38 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.10 / defence 1.30 against Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 52% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 26%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 58%, Haugesund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG, Haugesund 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.