KFUM Oslo 0-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 47%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this KFUM Oslo vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 3W 5D 2L at KFUM Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — KFUM Oslo are significantly better at KFUM Arena than their overall form suggests.
Tromso (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Tromso are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for KFUM Oslo, 3 for Tromso and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Tromso winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Tromso — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 58% versus Tromso 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 47% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.46 xG and Tromso 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.806 / defence 0.918 | Tromso attack 0.953 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.159. Data: 40 KFUM Oslo games / 42 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 26% | Tromso 26%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Tromso 3.85. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KFUM Oslo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: KFUM Oslo 80% | Tromso 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 26% | Tromso 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.46 / Tromso 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.806 / def 0.918 | Tromso attack 0.953 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Tromso xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Tromso kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 May 2026 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Tromso?
KFUM Oslo 0 - 0 Tromso.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Tromso part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 47% chance of winning, Tromso a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Tromso?
Record (4 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 0 | Tromso 3W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Tromso in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KFUM Oslo's attack at 0.81x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.95x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 40/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.78
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Tromso xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.01 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, KFUM Oslo have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 21D 22L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 27W 9D 24L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.50 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, KFUM Oslo have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (7W 12D 11L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 12W 4D 14L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Tromso in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Tromso in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.10 PPG; Tromso away: 1.33 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Tromso in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Tromso?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Tromso have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 67%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (KFUM Oslo) and 47% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Tromso in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of KFUM Oslo's games and 43% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 47% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Tromso tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Tromso in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KFUM Oslo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.46 xG and Tromso 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Tromso attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 47% | Draw 26% | Tromso 26%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 47%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.20 PPG, Tromso 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.