KFUM Oslo 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 21 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — KFUM Oslo are significantly better at KFUM Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.60 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KFUM Oslo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 59% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 47% | Bodo/Glimt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.926 / defence 1.132 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.364. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 KFUM Oslo games / 58 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 23% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 56%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 70% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 23% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.41 / Bodo/Glimt 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.926 / def 1.132 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 23% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): KFUM Oslo 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.93) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.46x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
23%
4.37
21%
4.75
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.66
2.25
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.37
23%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
11%
9.51
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
2%
41.53
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 2.25 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 17W 21D 20L from 58 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 38W 12D 8L across 58 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KFUM Oslo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 7W 12D 10L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 17W 7D 5L across 29 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.57 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 20L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 12D 8L in their last 58 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.14 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
KFUM Oslo
2
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 66%, Bodo/Glimt 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (KFUM Oslo) and 59% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of KFUM Oslo's games and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 59% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out KFUM Oslo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat KFUM Oslo 1-2 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.25 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.46 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 23% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 56%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 47%, Bodo/Glimt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.