jerv 0-5 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
J.J. Ugland Stadion plays host to jerv versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
jerv's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. jerv have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — jerv register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects jerv 1.06 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: jerv attack 0.692 / defence 0.910 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.321 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.359. jerv's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 jerv games / 38 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: jerv 24% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%. Fair-value odds: jerv 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 5.7 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: J.J. Ugland Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: jerv 24% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG jerv 1.06 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: jerv attack 0.692 / def 0.910 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.321 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
jerv xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What was the final score in jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
jerv 0 - 5 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at J.J. Ugland Stadion.
What competition is jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives jerv a 24% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
jerv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates jerv's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.32x) against jerv's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
24%
4.10
25%
3.95
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
jerv xG
Total xG
2.70
1.63
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
21.02
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for jerv and 1.63 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
jerv's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for jerv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours jerv by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
jerv are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: jerv have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
jerv
Early Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
jerv have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
jerv
0
Draws
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 2 meetings on record, jerv have won 0, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-3 jerv.
Who has won more matches between jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = jerv home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when jerv play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of jerv's games and 100% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is jerv vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of jerv's matches and 100% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do jerv and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
jerv have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat jerv 0-5 at J.J. Ugland Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting jerv 1.06 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.63 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. jerv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.63 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of jerv attack 0.69 / defence 0.91 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.32 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it jerv 24% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (jerv 100%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, jerv arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. jerv managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 4.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.