Haugesund 0-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haugesund and Stromsgodset meet at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Haugesund, 0 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Haugesund — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Stromsgodset 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 63% | Stromsgodset 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.57 xG and Stromsgodset 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.985 / defence 1.205 | Stromsgodset attack 0.811 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.180. Data: 32 Haugesund games / 32 Stromsgodset games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 3.57. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Stromsgodset 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.57 / Stromsgodset 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.985 / def 1.205 | Stromsgodset attack 0.811 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Stromsgodset xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 47% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.98) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.81x) against Haugesund's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.00
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.73
1.15
Stromsgodset xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.15 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 14D 26L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Haugesund against 1.12 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Haugesund's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.60 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Stromsgodset have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Stromsgodset 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 60% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 57% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Haugesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stromsgodset defy the odds to beat Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.57 xG and Stromsgodset 1.15 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Stromsgodset attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 47% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 28%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Stromsgodset 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.23 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.