Haugesund 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 49%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 0 for Rosenborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 55% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 64% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.96 xG and Rosenborg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.250 / defence 1.015 | Rosenborg attack 1.093 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.274. Data: 53 Haugesund games / 53 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 3.85. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 49% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Haugesund 1.96 / Rosenborg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.250 / def 1.015 | Rosenborg attack 1.093 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Rosenborg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 49% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.25x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.37
1.41
Rosenborg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
4%
27.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.41 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 10D 23L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 27W 12D 14L from 53 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (14W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 9W 7D 10L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.87 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 12D 14L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Haugesund's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.77 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 50%, Rosenborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Haugesund and 62% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Rosenborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haugesund's recent matches and 58% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Haugesund's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Haugesund and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.96 xG and Rosenborg 1.41 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 49% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 26%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 64%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.