Haugesund 1-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjondalen make the trip to Haugesund Stadion to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Haugesund (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Haugesund's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Haugesund 0W, Mjondalen 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2020, ended 0–1 with Mjondalen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 54% versus Mjondalen 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 58% | Mjondalen 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.75 xG and Mjondalen 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.982 / defence 1.304 | Mjondalen attack 0.546 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.369. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Haugesund games / 26 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 21%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Mjondalen 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 50% | Mjondalen 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Haugesund 1.75 / Mjondalen 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.982 / def 1.304 | Mjondalen attack 0.546 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mjondalen xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Mjondalen kick off?
Haugesund vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Haugesund 1 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Haugesund vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Mjondalen part of?
Haugesund vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 55% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Haugesund and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Mjondalen in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.98) and Mjondalen's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.55x) against Haugesund's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.19
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
Mjondalen xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
27.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.97 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 26 games, going 10W 4D 12L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.77 PPG from 26 outings (6W 2D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 0.62 points per game from 13 outings (2W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.81 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 10W 4D 12L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 6W 2D 18L in their last 26 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Mjondalen away?
Haugesund's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.54 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 7-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Mjondalen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when Haugesund 7-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 54%, Mjondalen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Haugesund) and 46% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Haugesund's recent matches and 46% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Haugesund's recent games and 46% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and Mjondalen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Mjondalen finished level at 1-1 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.75 xG and Mjondalen 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Mjondalen attack 0.55 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 55% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 21%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 58%, Mjondalen 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.